National parties in local elections: how the barometric punishment is outweighed by the mayoral party bonus

According to the second-order election model, the electoral gains and losses for political parties in secondary electoral arenas are partially explained by which parties are in government in the primary arena. The effect of “barometric punishment” means that the parties in the national government receive worse results in elections of second order, such as local elections. However, the second-order election model ignores which party holds the government in the specific local jurisdiction, implying that the information on who controls the visible and important mayoral position is neutral to the local electoral fate of a party. Based on fine-grained data from four consecutive electoral cycles in Denmark, it is demonstrated that while a (negative) barometric punishment of national governing parties can be observed in local elections, this effect is substantially outweighed by a (positive) mayoral party bonus. This bonus is much stronger if the incumbent mayor runs for reelection.