The use of ELF in predicting liver fibrosis prevalence and fibrosis progression in the general population

The enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test has good discrimination performance in detecting advanced liver fibrosis. The chronic liver disease (CLivD) risk score based on clinical data accurately predicts risk for future severe liver disease. Considering the ELF test as a surrogate marker for liver fibrosis, we analyzed predictors of elevated ELF (eELF) and its change. The study cohort consisted of Finnish general population-based health surveys Health2000 and a follow-up study 10 years later Health2011 with 6084 and 2937 individuals, respectively with phenotype and ELF data. eELF was defined as ELF ≥ 9.8, and clinically relevant fibrosis progression as an ELF change ≥0.6. CLivD risk score was calculated at baseline. Analyses were age-adjusted. Obesity measures and diabetes predicted eELF at baseline. Only waist-hip ratio (WHR) could predict clinically relevant fibrosis progression over the follow-up consistently among men and women (OR 1.35 and 1.41, respectively). High-risk alcohol use was a significant risk factor for eELF only among men (OR 1.72, <i>p</i> = 0.049), and it did not predict fibrosis progression in either sex. Although elevated transaminases were associated with eELF, in most individuals with eELF they were within reference limits. Increased CLivD scores correlated with baseline and the change of ELF values over the 10-year follow-up independent of baseline ELF (<i>p</i> &lt; 0.001). Liver fibrosis progression is difficult to predict based on single risk factors or liver enzymes. ELF had limited value to predict fibrosis progression. The CLivD score, based on multiple risk factors, predicted both occurrence of baseline eELF and its progression over a 10-year follow-up.