Assessing the impact of oil prices and inflation on bank deposits in Azerbaijan

Bank deposits are vital for the economy, serving as a primary source of funding for banks that facilitate lending, investment, consumption, and overall economic growth. This article aims to examine how oil price fluctuations and inflation, two critical macroeconomic variables, influence bank deposits in Azerbaijan, an energy-exporting country. The primary purpose is to reveal the extent to which these factors, particularly in the context of Azerbaijan’s role as an energy exporter, affect the stability and liquidity of the banking sector. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality testing, the study analyzes the dynamic relationships among these variables. The findings demonstrate a significant long-term relationship and causal effects between oil prices, inflation, and bank deposits. Specifically, a one-unit increase in oil prices results in a 0.057-unit rise in bank deposits, underscoring the positive impact of oil price increases on banking sector liquidity. Conversely, a one-unit increase in inflation decreases bank deposits by 0.812 units in the long term, highlighting inflation’s detrimental effect on financial stability.