Designing a forecasting system using its parameters

The work solves the problem of calculating parameter values and their use in building a system for forecasting external, random events that negatively affect the functioning process implemented by a technical object. To clarify the functioning process, a number of conditions defining the boundaries within which the parameters are studied are proposed. The design of the system is performed in stages, and therefore the investigated parameters are analyzed at each stage separately. The first stage of the process of designing a forecasting system is the formation of a hypothesis that determines the general purpose of using the system. The work offers an interpretation of the hypothesis that is adapted to the solved problem. A description of the process of preliminary analysis of input data is provided, and the processes related to the requirements for the components of the forecasting system, which expand its functionality, are considered. The peculiarities of the functioning of the component, which predicts a random event, are considered. The statement is proved, which defines the type of functions on the basis of which the prediction is realized. At the second stage, the processes of determining the values of the countermeasures against the impact of a random event on the functioning of the technological process are implemented. As part of these processes, textual descriptions of data interpretation are used to expand their functionality related to the implementation of the corresponding countermeasure. In this regard, the statement about the non-contradiction of the system of algorithms, which is modified based on the use of information from textual descriptions of the interpretation of data used in the forecasting system, is proved.