Nearly Realized Cases: A Novel Framework to Select Negative Cases for Comparative Theory Development

For scholars working with a relatively small number of cases, the selection of negative cases –where the outcome of interest does not occur– has significant consequences for theory development and testing (Mahoney and Goertz 2004). Rare events such as interstate and civil wars, revolutions, coups, genocides, state collapses, and democratic breakdowns are especially important for qualitative scholars since their rarity makes them particularly suitable for qualitative comparison. Yet, their rarity creates problems for negative case selection.