Skipped Mass Correction Model

The Skipped Mass Correction Model demonstrates strong accuracy across a diverse range of systems—without relying on any fitted parameters. It was derived purely from the structural observation that exponential models skip over meaningful intermediate values. When tested across six distinct domains—epidemics, hardware scaling, population growth, energy efficiency, startup valuation, and internet adoption—the model consistently showed low mean absolute and root mean square errors in systems with measurable structure. In structured, physical systems (like hardware and epidemic spread), the model performs exceptionally well, capturing real-world growth with minimal deviation. In human-influenced systems (like population and startups), it still tracks the overall behavior while exposing domains where external factors—policy, sentiment, or hype—introduce volatility. The model's success, despite its simplicity and lack of data fitting, suggests that structural skipping is a real and measurable phenomenon in exponential growth. It offers both a corrective tool and an interpretive lens for forecasting and system modeling.

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2025-05-26
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15519391
Primary Topic
Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Skipped Mass Correction Model

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
article

Skipped Mass Correction Model

article en

Abstract

The Skipped Mass Correction Model demonstrates strong accuracy across a diverse range of systems—without relying on any fitted parameters. It was derived purely from the structural observation that exponential models skip over meaningful intermediate values. When tested across six distinct domains—epidemics, hardware scaling, population growth, energy efficiency, startup valuation, and internet adoption—the model consistently showed low mean absolute and root mean square errors in systems with measurable structure. In structured, physical systems (like hardware and epidemic spread), the model performs exceptionally well, capturing real-world growth with minimal deviation. In human-influenced systems (like population and startups), it still tracks the overall behavior while exposing domains where external factors—policy, sentiment, or hype—introduce volatility. The model's success, despite its simplicity and lack of data fitting, suggests that structural skipping is a real and measurable phenomenon in exponential growth. It offers both a corrective tool and an interpretive lens for forecasting and system modeling.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Affordable and clean energy
Openalex Percentile: Top 45%
Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting
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