A Case Study of Atmospheric Entry and Fragmentation of a Stony Asteroid, similar to 2024 YR4

This paper presents a simplified analysis of the atmospheric entry and fragmentation of a stony asteroid, similar to the 2024 YR4, using an analytic model to estimate key processes such as deceleration, ablation, and fragmentation. Assuming a 60-meter diameter asteroid entering at 15 km/s, the study finds that the asteroid would begin to break up at an altitude of approximately 37 km, with a debris cloud diameter of about 240 meters. The largest surviving fragments are estimated to be 3 meters in size, and the total kinetic energy released is equivalent to 9.1 megatons of TNT. These results provide valuable insights into the potential hazards posed by stony asteroids and can inform planetary defense strategies.