TÜRKİYE'DE KAMU HARCAMALARI VE GÖÇ İLİŞKİSİ: GRANGER NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Abstract In recent years, migration waves have become more frequent due to the impact of wars. Migration waves have the highest impact on the economy. With globalization, its size and impact are gaining more and more meaning with each passing day. Therefore, the study area of migration has expanded and has been associated with important macroeconomic variables. In this paper, the relationship between migration and public expenditures is analyzed for Türkiye. International migration, public expenditures and economic growth variables are used in the model. Annual data for the period 1996-2022 were used to estimate the variables. In order to have information about the direction of the variables, Granger causality test is applied. However, before the Granger causality test, the stationarity of the variables should be examined. ADF test is preferred to test whether there is a unit root in the variables. According to the ADF test results, the variables are stationary in the first difference. According to the Granger causality test results, there is unidirectional causality from migration to public expenditures and from economic growth to public expenditures. According to the last finding, unilateral causality was found from economic growth to migration variable. Keywords: Mıgration, Public Expenditures, Grnager Causalıty Analysis, Türkiye JEL Classification: F1, F31