Migration and population change - drivers and impacts

According to themedium-variant projection of the United Nations, theworld’s population is likely to increase from 7.6 billion in2017 to 8.6 billion by 2030, the target year of theSustainable Development Goals, and to 9.8 billion in2050.1 Most of this increase will take place in thedeveloping regions, while the developed regions will, forthe first time in recorded history, start to experiencenegative population growth by around 2040 or 2050.Under a scenario that assumes a net migration of zero,the projected population of the developed regions wouldbe nine per cent smaller in 2050 than if current migrationtrends continued. With no migration, or with equivalentlevels of immigration and emigration, the population ofthe developing regions would be about one per centlarger in 2050 than if current migration trends continued.