Exploring Cognitive Characteristics in Weak Signals Perception within Science and Technology foresight

This paper systematically explores weak signal characteristics within science and technology (S&T) in its early perception, aiming to uncover future trends and enhance technological risk prevention. It begins by summarizing weak signal connotations and lifecycle characteristics, followed by a bibliometric analysis of early weak signals in S&T forecasting. To dynamically grasp weak signal changes and transformations, the study analyzes signal dimensions between weak and strong signals, exploring characteristic differences and potential transformation paths from a cognitive and evolutionary standpoint. Early weak signals in S&T foresight are marked by obscurity and high uncertainty, posing perception challenges. By contrasting signal attributes, including low visibility, uncertainty, fragmentation, subjectivity, predictiveness, and implicit knowledge gaps, the study lays a theoretical foundation for early weak signal perception in S&T foresight research and practice.