ARE PERCEPTIONS OF BEHAVIORAL PHENOTYPES AND SOCIAL VALUE INFLUENCED BY PERCEPTUAL CUES TO MORTALITY RISK?

Formal theoretical models suggest that individuals can accurately assess others’ life-history-related behavioral strategies, which are theoretically regulated by exposure to environmental factors that predict one’s mortality risk. While people can often estimate others’ behavioral strategies, it remains unclear whether they can accurately gauge mortality risk. Previous research has relied on indirect and unvalidated operational definitions to mortality risk, which may not align with actual risk. The present study addresses this gap by examining whether individuals can perceive another person’s mortality risk, using life insurance policies as an empirical proxy for individual mortality risk. Analyzing standardized photographs of life insurance policyholders, we found that people could accurately estimate others’ likelihood of dying, but not their expected age at death. We also observed strong correlations between self-reported behavioral strategies and estimates of others’ strategies. Additionally, we found some support that mortality risk measures were associated to behavioral strategies. However, we did not find support for an association between a person’s childhood ecology and others’ perceptions of their mortality risk or behavioral strategies. In contrast, current household income emerged as a significant link between people’s estimations of others’ mortality risk and behavioral strategies, suggesting that present ecological conditions, rather than childhood ecology, are more influential in shaping perceptions of others’ mortality risk.