Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Heatwave-Wildfire Relationships over Africa

In this study we investigate the relationship between heatwaves and wildfire activity across two fire-prone regions in tropical Africa from 2003 to 2019. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, MODIS fire products, and satellite-derived climate indices, we examine trends in heatwave frequency, fire occurrence, and burned area. Results show a significant increase in heatwave events in both northern and southern regions; however, fire counts and burned areas declined, particularly in the north. Correlation analyses reveal only weak associations between heatwaves and fire activity, and causality tests using Liang information flow show limited directional influence. These findings suggest a decoupling of heat extremes from fire regimes in tropical Africa, highlighting the probable influence of other factors over purely climatic drivers.