Reliability Analysis for Optimization of Galma Dam Reservoir Operations Using an Explicit Stochastic Model

Effective handling of water resources in dams is important for guaranteeing consistent water supply, flood management, and food safety. This research introduces a method for assessing the dependability of Galma's dam reservoir operations by utilizing a specific stochastic modeling technique. The stochastic optimization model includes the natural uncertainties in hydrological inflows, water demands, and operating conditions. The stochastic optimization model is created by selecting the probability distribution of two parameters from the Weilbull distribution, with a scale factor of 25.3522 and a shape factor of 0.55190. This model is converted into a chance-constrained programming problem to determine the yield for a specified demand. The input discharge levels were optimized to achieve the Maximum-Minimum yields at reliability levels of 25%, 50%, 75% and 85%. The highest amount of water produced was 669.890 Mega Cubic Meters (MCM) with an 85% assurance level, while the lowest amount was 334.2666 MCM at a 25% confidence level. This demonstrates the need to find the best operational strategies that consider trade-offs between different goals and guarantee a specific level of system dependability. The results of this research offer important information for water resource managers and decision-makers to create resilient and sustainable reservoir management plans, especially amidst growing uncertainties from climate change and other environmental influences.