JWST Weighs in on the Hubble Tension

JWST provides new opportunities to cross-check the HST Cepheid/SNeIa distance ladder, which yields the most precise local measure of H0. We analyze early JWST subsamples (~1/4 of the HST sample) from the SH0ES and CCHP groups, calibrated by a single anchor (NGC4258). We find HST Cepheid distances agree well (1 sigma) with all 8 combinations of methods, samples, and telescopes: JWST Cepheids, TRGB, and JAGB by either group, plus HST TRGB and Miras. Mean differences are ~0.03 mag, far smaller than the 0.18 mag "Hubble tension." Combining all measures produces the strongest constraint yet on the linearity of HST Cepheid distances, 0.994+-0.010, ruling out distance-dependent bias or offset as the source of the tension at ~7 sigma. Yet, measurements of H0 from current JWST subsamples produce large sampling differences whose size and direction we can directly estimate from the full HST set. We show that Delta(H0) ~ 2.5 km/s/Mpc between the CCHP JWST program and the full HST sample is entirely consistent with differences in sample selection. Combining all JWST samples produces a new, distance-limited set of 16 SNe Ia at D<25 Mpc and more closely resembles the full sample thanks to "reversion to the mean" of larger samples. Explicitly accounting for SNe in common, the combined-sample three-method result from JWST is H0=72.6+-2.0, similar to H0=72.8 expected from HST Cepheids in the same galaxies. Overall, the joint JWST sample provides important crosschecks which the HST data passes

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2025-06-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15765604
Primary Topic
Crystal Structures and Properties
Type
article
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article

JWST Weighs in on the Hubble Tension

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Crystal Structures and Properties
article

JWST Weighs in on the Hubble Tension

article en

Abstract

JWST provides new opportunities to cross-check the HST Cepheid/SNeIa distance ladder, which yields the most precise local measure of H0. We analyze early JWST subsamples (~1/4 of the HST sample) from the SH0ES and CCHP groups, calibrated by a single anchor (NGC4258). We find HST Cepheid distances agree well (1 sigma) with all 8 combinations of methods, samples, and telescopes: JWST Cepheids, TRGB, and JAGB by either group, plus HST TRGB and Miras. Mean differences are ~0.03 mag, far smaller than the 0.18 mag "Hubble tension." Combining all measures produces the strongest constraint yet on the linearity of HST Cepheid distances, 0.994+-0.010, ruling out distance-dependent bias or offset as the source of the tension at ~7 sigma. Yet, measurements of H0 from current JWST subsamples produce large sampling differences whose size and direction we can directly estimate from the full HST set. We show that Delta(H0) ~ 2.5 km/s/Mpc between the CCHP JWST program and the full HST sample is entirely consistent with differences in sample selection. Combining all JWST samples produces a new, distance-limited set of 16 SNe Ia at D<25 Mpc and more closely resembles the full sample thanks to "reversion to the mean" of larger samples. Explicitly accounting for SNe in common, the combined-sample three-method result from JWST is H0=72.6+-2.0, similar to H0=72.8 expected from HST Cepheids in the same galaxies. Overall, the joint JWST sample provides important crosschecks which the HST data passes

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Johns Hopkins University (US)
Openalex Percentile: Top 64%
Crystal Structures and Properties
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