Potential Impacts of the Alliance of Sahel States's Withdrawal from ECOWAS on Burkina Faso's Economy

Abstract: This article analyzes the economic impacts of the Alliance of Sahel States withdrawing from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Burkina Faso's trade and economy. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we find that the withdrawal would contract trade, especially with non-WAEMU ECOWAS countries, and increase imported goods prices. However, it may enhance domestic demand for local products and open opportunities for new trade partnerships. While there are challenges, such as negative effects on vulnerable households, the situation could also help diversify export markets and strengthen local production, provided that the competitiveness of Burkinabe firms improves. Keywords: Alliance of Sahel States, Burkina Faso, ECOWAS, Computable General Equilibrium Model