OPTIMIZING POWER SECTOR TRANSITION PATHWAYS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY-SCARCE REGIONS: AN OPERATIONAL RESEARCH APPROACH TO HUNAN PROVINCE UNDER CARBON PEAK GOALS

This research investigates the electricity transformation pathways in Hunan province, China, which focuses on the issues of limited renewable energy resources and the carbon peak target. An analysis was performed on the impacts between 2022 and 2035 by applying the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, which developed three scenarios (BAS, EPS, and APS). This analysis was intended for gaining insights into analyse electricity demand trends, power generation structure adjustments, emission reduction potential, and policy frameworks from 2022 to 2035. The findings reveal that under the APS scenario, the share of coal-fired power would decrease by about 20%, translating to an estimated reduction of 50 million tons of CO2 emissions. The study highlights that through strategies such as industrial restructuring, widespread deployment of energy storage technologies, and the application of smart grid systems could help Hunan achieve its carbon peak target 3 to 5 years earlier compared to the BAS scenario. Key policy recommendations include: a) accelerating the transition from coal-fired power; b) supporting the moderate development of natural gas power; c) promoting energy storage technologies and distributed energy systems and d) enhancing carbon market mechanisms. These strategies aim to optimize the electricity generation mix, strengthen renewable energy integration, and improve system flexibility. In general, this interdisciplinary study offers valuable insights into operational research, technological innovation, and sustainable energy transitions. These efforts might make meaningful contributions to the practical implementation of carbon reduction goals in renewable energy-scarce regions.