Uneven contributions to life expectancy gains in Ethiopia: The dominant role of "Other Effect" and the limiting impact of old age groups

This study investigates the contributions of different age groups to changes in life expectancy at birth in Ethiopia and its regional states over a period of thirty years. Using the Arriaga decomposition method, we separated the contributions of direct and other effects analyzing the role of old age groups. Our analysis revealed that while overall life expectancy has increased, old age groups contributed minimally, and in many cases even negatively to the overall increase in life expectancy and to the other effect component as well. Conversely, other effect, primarily reflecting changes in mortality patterns across all ages, emerge as the dominant driver of life expectancy gains. This suggests that improvements in life expectancy in Ethiopia in the period 1990 – 2019 were primarily driven by factors affecting younger age groups and not significant gains in longevity at older ages. Our findings highlight the need for targeted interventions addressing mortality across all age groups and aimed at improving health outcomes for older adults. Regionally, no significant contribution differences were observed but Addis Ababa exhibited a negative other effect contribution in the old ages.