Health Care Expenditures and Financial Burden Across Nigeria's Northwestern States: An Actuarial Perspective

This paper presents an actuarial analysis of healthcare expenditures and utilisation patterns across Nigeria’s Northwestern states. While prior research has examined out-of-pocket expenditures, a actuarial analysis of disease patterns and cost drivers remains critical for evidence-based policymaking. Using retrospective health insurance claims data from over sixty thousand enrollees nationwide, the study estimates nationwide healthcare utilisation rates and costs across disease categories, age groups, and gender using ICD-II classification, supplemented by regional accessibility surveys. Results indicate diseases of the circulatory and endocrine systems are among the most utilised and costly, with older adults incurring the highest healthcare expenses. Budget analysis reveals wide disparities in health spending among states. The analysis underscores the important of actuarial modelling in guiding resource allocation, forecasting financial needs, and informing health financing reforms. The findings call for risk pooling, equitable budgeting, and the development of sustainable state health insurance schemes to reduce financial burden and improve healthcare access.