The Nexus Of Climate Variability, Policy Interventions, And Wheat Productivity In India: Empirical Insights From An ARDL Model

This paper investigates the Nexus of Climate Variability, Policy Interventions, and Wheat Productivity in India. The variables' unit roots were investigated using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The study used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to estimate both short- and long-term parameters for selected variables over the period from 1991 to 2020. The ARDL bounds testing indicated a long-term co-integration among the variables. The study’s results reveal that increased rainfall had a positive impact on wheat productivity, whereas mean temperature had a positive impact, except Additionally, long-term agricultural credit contributed to enhanced wheat output. The study suggests investing in modern technology to maximize production. The study also found that fertilizer application enhanced wheat yields, highlighting the significance of modern tools and technology in agriculture. To address the agriculture credit needs of the sector and enhance production technologies, the report advocates for more comprehensive agricultural policies tailored to these demands.