Judgement Day for Unified Theories: The Arrival of Quantitative Emergence Diagnostics

V5: Abstract revised. V4: Tighter development and edit. 2.9: Physical parsimony rooted in temporally revered entropic systems => system wide applicability of parsimony metric. 2.7.2: Empirically and relativistically/ mathematically (concisely) compliant deconstruction of spin ½ electron to classical spin 1 electron with two smoothly transitionable magentic dipole moment states. 2.11: GR and QT statistical framework alignment and misalignment tests generate discovery level confirmation of physical unification viability and abstract framework definitions as the root of unification issues. Abstract: Consistent with an ideal model of emergence, a truly unified model must evolve causally and continuously from its seed, generating all emergent systems and behaviours. Such a model can be detected using the Binary Hypothesis Test (BHT), which assesses how statistically unlikely its cumulative predictive alignment with empirical data would be under chance. Assuming a 50% probability of any single prediction aligning by coincidence (Pₙᵤₗₗ = 0.5), the probability of k successive alignments is given by Pₙᵤₗₗ(k) = 0.5ᵏ. Setting a threshold of k ≥ 22 corresponds to the 5σ discovery standard used in particle physics, with Pₙᵤₗₗ(k=22) ≤ 3 × 10⁻⁷ - establishing a minimum empirical benchmark for unified models.Models that survive this filter have a high statistical likelihood of carrying a seed structure that is aligned with an empirical (real-world) unified seed. Empirical evidence supporting ideal emergence - and its dependence on entropy - further reinforces this approach. From this, we derive a parsimony metric, which is then used to assess the seed complexity of General Relativity (GR) and Quantum Theory QT), both of which meet the k ≥ 22 threshold.GR’s seed is markedly simpler and closer to an ideal unifying seed than the QT seed. GR therefore cannot unify as a subset of QT - as assumed in current quantised-gravity efforts. Such emergence analysis transforms unification from abstraction-led speculation to a disciplined, scientific, empirical methodology. This allows the non-viable routes to unification to be avoided and the viable routes to be mapped. Keywords: Emergence analysis metrics, causal continuity, quantitative testing of unification models, Binary Hypothesis Test, Bias Antidote Theorem (BAT)