Scenario Narrative Validator: A Framework for Bias-Free Foresight

This paper introduces the Scenario Narrative Validator (SNV), a novel methodological tool designed to enhance the robustness of future scenarios by systematically identifying and mitigating cognitive biases (e.g., anchoring, confirmation bias) and research fallacies (e.g., linear projection, planning fallacy). Developed through an interdisciplinary approach integrating cognitive psychology, systems thinking, and foresight methodologies, the SNV provides a structured validation framework organized into five criteria: methodological transparency, cognitive bias mitigation, stakeholder perspectives, internal consistency, and practical utility. Utilizing iterative design methods, literature reviews, and expert practitioner feedback, we developed a 26-item checklist that enables structured assessment of scenario narratives. Pilot testing demonstrated the SNV’s effectiveness in prompting practitioners to critically examine assumptions, ensure logical coherence, and incorporate diverse stakeholder viewpoints. By advancing systematic bias identification, this research contributes to the theoretical foundations of scenario planning while offering a practical tool for creating credible, decision-relevant scenarios in uncertain environments. The SNV checklist, included in this paper, provides a replicable process to refine foresight outputs across industries.