Patterns of ecologo-geographic distribution of the grasshopper Prumna primnoa (Motschulsky, 1846) (Orthoptera: Acrididae: Melanoplinae)

Prumna primnoa (Motschulsky, 1846) is the species of the acridid subfamily Melanoplinae. The species is widely distributed across the temperate Asia and sometimes can damage different crops. The goals of this article are to characterize the actual distribution of the species, to generate species distribution models for the contemporary and future conditions and to estimate possible shifts in its distribution patterns. The modern range of the grasshopper P. primnoa is characterized by the data on its known localities. The species distribution models are generated on the basis of two approaches, namely the maximum entropy and the multidimensional ellipsoid envelope, and the set of bioclimatic variables. These models, especially the maximum entropy one, describe well the contemporary distribution of P. primnoa. The predictive contributions of bioclimatic variables and their significances were estimated. The hypothesis that as a result of global warming the areas of suitable conditions for the species will noticeably decline is proposed. In the future, the potential harmfulness of P. primnoa may be revealed in the agricultural landscapes of the Lower Amur region and Sakhalin Island, however, the general trend of possible shifts in the species distribution, namely decreasing of habitats, probably, number and abundance of local populations, may be evident for the main parts of the species range.