Analysis of load forecasting and flexibility utilization of the HEMS fleet in the OPENTUNITY project

The accelerated electrification and increasing share of renewable energy sources in the distribution grid present a challenge to grid stability, as they contribute to higher peak loads. However, these technologies also enable operational flexibility, which can be used to optimize costs and participate in energy markets. A key enabler in this process is the Home Energy Management System (HEMS), which facilitates smart control of various devices and thus unlocking their flexibility potential. The OPENTUNITY project supports energy stakeholders, including grid operators and active consumers, by employing advanced methodologies and interoperable software solutions. One of the key objectives of the project is to unlock and utilize flexibility from various sources. The Slovenian pilot includes a fleet of EV charging stations and vehicles, as well as Reduxi HEMS device by Amibit, which enable the integration of different devices and the optimization of their energy consumption. In the first phase of the project, collected operational data was used to develop forecasting models for energy consumption and production. This paper describes the entire process—from data collection and preparation to the application of advanced forecasting methods. Additionally, it analyses the results of two selected forecasting approaches, comparing their performance and exploring their practical applicability.