Macroeconomic Variables and Profitability of Consumer Goods Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria

Abstract Given the essential role of the manufacturing sector in promoting economic development within emerging economies such as Nigeria, it is imperative to investigate how macroeconomic policy indicators affect this sector. This study examines the impact of key macroeconomic variables on the profitability of consumer goods manufacturing firms in Nigeria. Utilizing an ex-post facto research design, the study analyzed secondary data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the financial reports of twelve listed consumer goods manufacturing firms over the period from 2006 to 2022. The data was subjected to analysis using a random effects panel regression model. The results reveal that inflation exerts a statistically significant positive effect on Return on Assets (ROA) (p = 0.0211 < 0.05) and Return on Equity (ROE) (p = 0.0368 < 0.05), while its effect on Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) (p = 0.0681 > 0.05) and Earnings per Share (EPS) (p = 0.7175 > 0.05) is not significant. Conversely, interest rates showed no significant impact on any of the profitability metrics. The study also found that fluctuations in the exchange rate had significant negative effects on ROA (p = 0.0000 < 0.05), ROE (p = 0.0160 < 0.05), and ROCE (p = 0.0015 < 0.05), with no significant effect on EPS (p = 0.0720 > 0.05). The findings suggest that while inflation and exchange rates significantly influence the manufacturing sector, these variables do not necessarily enhance financial returns for investors, as measured by EPS. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce lending costs to lower manufacturing expenses and enhance productivity, while the government should implement macroeconomic measures to mitigate detrimental inflationary effects. Keywords: Exchange rate, Earnings per share, Financial returns, Inflation rate, Interest rate, Profitability metric.