Migration discourses from the radical right: Mapping and testing potential for political mobilization

Radical right-wing groups are often linked to conspiratorial beliefs that can fuel political extremism but understanding how these beliefs translate into real-world action remains a challenge, as these communities tend to operate in insular networks. This study examines how migration-related narratives shape political behaviour among Italy’s radical right. Using Facebook’s advertising system, we recruited supporters of these movements for an experimental survey. Applying Cultural Consensus Theory (CCT), we measured group consensus on anti-migrant beliefs and tested the impact of media exposure by presenting participants with either positive or negative portrayals of migrants. Our findings reveal two key insights. First, radical right-wing communities exhibit deeply entrenched anti-migrant beliefs that function as cultural truths and are resistant to shifts in media framing. Second, negative media exposure does however amplify support for hostile political actions, including protests and political violence. Conversely, positive portrayals reduce the coherence of anti-migrant consensus but do not significantly lower preferences for confrontational actions. These results suggest that media exposure does not change the core extremist beliefs of radical right-wing supporters but instead triggers emotional responses that shape political behavior. Specifically, negative portrayals of migrants increase support for direct actions, such as protests and political violence, even though they do not reinforce or strengthen consensus on anti-migrant beliefs. This finding underscores that countering violent extremism requires more than just challenging harmful narratives—it also demands addressing the emotional triggers that translate these attitudes into mobilization and political action.