The Impact of Small-Scale Conflicts on Post-Soviet Alliances

Military alliances are crucial for international and regional security. However, conflicts may disrupt these connections, weakening alliance structures, particularly in complex regions such as the post-Soviet space. This article examines the effects of small-scale conflicts on the post-Soviet alliance network by analyzing the impact of three conflicts: the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) War. Using the temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM), the study finds that three conflicts significantly weakened alliance structures in the region, reducing the likelihood of new alliance ties within both the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and broader bilateral alliances.