Towards Climate-Neutral Energy: Assessing Equations for Optimization of Photovoltaic Production Estimates

To achieve the climate-neutral target by 2045 in Germany, photovoltaic power dependency is rising throughout Germany; yet, it is remarkably challenging to anticipate power generation precisely in order to build a decentralised and reliable grid infrastructure. Particularly in regions of Franconia (Germany) that have a unique continental climate with noticeable meteorological circumstances that influence photovoltaic (PV) yield, such as Maritime Tropical air masses (MT) during summer and Continental Polar air masses (CP) during winter. This study focusses on evaluating previously validated scientific-equations for PV yield, aiming to identify the most suitable and precise model for given location. The analysis considers variables such as solar irradiation, wind speed, ambient and cell temperature, and humidity on solar power generation in Feuchtwangen, Germany. The goal is to assess and identify the most accurate equation for the Middle Franconia region by comparing mathematical data with real-time data from operational solar installations and cross-referencing results with PV*SOL® software. This research aims to provide valuable insights into selecting the optimal equation for more precise solar power forecasts to support better planning and dimensioning of new installations in the region. The results elucidated the significance of seasonality and the parameters that exert the most influence on the PV yield estimates.