Understanding operational risks of low/non-ice-class ships navigating in Canadian icy waters

The unpredictability of ice and weather conditions may cause unexpected ship-ice encounters, which can be hazardous, especially for ships not sufficiently equipped for operation in the presence of sea ice. This study uses a combination of classic accident analysis and a more proactive approach, including historical data analysis and knowledge elicitation from experts to understand the historical statistics and functionality of low/non-ice-class ships sailed in icy waters in Canada. Ice-related marine accidents analysis showed that most drifting/besetting incidents and hull damages due to ice contact occurred in sub-arctic waters and in shoulder seasons. A Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) model based on experts’ knowledge showed the significance of the human factor, the ship management company, regulatory requirements, and governmentally provided information and supports (like advisory and icebreaking) in collaborative decision-making in strategic navigation. A statistical analysis of the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) risk indices based on historical ship positions (AIS data) and ice charts showed that it is likely that ships safely navigated in sea-ice that was heavier than POLARIS recommendations. Outcomes can be used to investigate the efficacy of regulatory arrangements, government provided supports and shipping company operating processes for safe ship navigation in ice.