February 2015: A Month to Remember in New England for Record Cold

February 2015 was one of the coldest months on record across the Northeast U.S., and in a number of locations was the all-time coldest month observed. Some of the possible causes of this extreme cold air outbreak are shown to be ENSO, MJO, positive SST anomalies, and persistent cyclogenesis along the east coast of the U.S. A review of the offical National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s temperature forecasts and Heidke skill scores for February along with two climate models that provided temperature forecast guildance for such an extreme event are examined. Lastly, a comparison with previous extreme cold months since 1948 across the Northeast U.S. showed that 500 hPa geopotential height composite anomalies had different distributions; however, the 500 hPa geopotenital height composite means all had an upper level trough across the Northeast U.S. This event review will hopefully provide forecasters with more confidence in predicting or assessing the potential for future extreme cold air outbreaks.