Wie realistisch ist das Pariser Temperaturziel?

<em><strong>How realistic is the Paris temperature goal? </strong></em>The interpretation of the Paris Climate Agreement has changed since it was adopted in 2015, as a result of political and scientific practice. The original two-part goal of holding global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C has transformed such that in public discourse the Paris temperature goal has de facto been equated with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Latest research suggests that this limit can no longer be met. Global warming of 1.5°C is expected to be exceeded already in the 2030s. It is not realistic to expect that emissions will fall quickly enough thereafter and reach net negative levels so that global warming will again drop below 1.5°C during the 21st century. This creates a communication dilemma for the scientific community, because 1.5°C seems to be an immovable political goal, regardless of the scientifically established ability to achieve it. One way out of this dilemma could be to retain 1.5°C as an ideal goal, but to supplement it with the goal formulated in the Paris Agreement of achieving greenhouse-gas neutrality in the second half of the 21st century.