The role of climate policy decision support tools for bridging the land sector emissions gap: the intersection of ndcs, the land sector, and climate calculators

Climate change represents an urgent global challenge, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities through extreme weather events and long-term environmental impacts. International agreements, such as the Paris Agreement (COP21), seek to promote equitable climate action, yet translating global climate goals into effective national policies remains a complex and divisive issue. To achieve meaningful climate mitigation and adaptation, it is crucial to evaluate the efficacy of current agreements and national efforts, particularly at the local level in complex sectors like the Land Sector. Land use is responsible for approximately a quarter of global GHG emissions annually, but it also holds significant mitigation potential and is intrinsically linked with other sectors. This research focuses on how the land sector is represented in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and the efforts made at the national level to meet these targets. Addressing the emissions gap, particularly in high-emitting sectors like land use, is critical for preventing severe climate impacts. Decision support tools (DSTs), such as the International 2050 Climate Calculator, play a key role in facilitating this process by offering valuable data and analysis to guide policymakers. These climate calculators model the effects of various mitigation strategies, helping to balance emissions reduction with economic growth. This thesis explores the role of climate calculators in bridging the emissions gap within the land sector. The research involves reviewing NDCs and assessing the effectiveness of climate calculators in modelling the land sector and calculating its contribution to climate change. It reveals inconsistencies in terminology and reporting across countries, which complicates the alignment of national strategies with global climate goals. The study emphasises the importance of integrating energy, land, and food systems into climate strategies, overcoming language barriers, and addressing cultural and implementation challenges to create more effective climate policies and achieve sustainable climate mitigation.