Dynamic Modeling of Urban Water Consumption and Management of Supply and Demand in Kerman Province

Kerman Province is located in the arid region category. The volume of its groundwater aquifers has been declining in recent years, and the continuation of this situation will have unfortunate consequences. This study aims to model urban water consumption in Kerman Province using System Dynamics (SD) in the Vensim PLE+ software and investigate the impact of supply and demand management on water resource preservation. For SD modeling, the model variables, their types, and the relationships between them were first identified, and mathematical formulas for each were derived. The modeling results indicate that the difference between urban water supply and demand reached a maximum of 61 million m3 in the years 2011 to 2021. Subsequently, water consumption management policies were examined, including “artificial groundwater recharge,” “separation of drinking water from non-potable water,” “managing network losses,” “controlling subsidized water prices,” and “managing household consumption patterns.” Simulation results reveal that “artificial groundwater recharge” as the most effective solution, can increase the water resources of Kerman to more than 100 million m3 per year. Additionally, this research demonstrates that modeling a complex system like urban water consumption using SD simplifies understanding of the model, identifies critical variables, tests solutions, and can serve as a useful management tool for decision-makers.