Comparative Analysis of Urban Resilience in Districts 5 and 6 of Tabriz Metropolitan Area

AbstractThe increasing population pressure, drastic land use changes, and rapid urbanization have made cities susceptible to various natural and human-induced hazards. Therefore, enhancing the resilience of urban settlements is crucial, particularly in the context of megacities. This research investigated urban resilience levels, prioritized resilience indicators, and compared resilience status between Districts 5 and 6 of Tabriz Metropolitan Area. The study employed a descriptive-analytical method with a developmental-applicative focus. Data were collected through library research, field surveys, and questionnaires, targeting the residents of Districts 5 and 6. A sample size of 342 individuals was determined using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and the gamma exponential method. In this study, 37 observed indicators of urban resilience were analyzed across 4 latent categories: social, economic, institutional-management, and physical-infrastructure. Latent indicators were prioritized based on their significance and impact through multiple regression analysis using SPSS software, while observed indicators were assessed via confirmatory factor analysis in LISREL software. A fuzzy logic model was employed within a GIS environment to map the effective indicators. Results revealed that the social latent index ranked highest in District 5 of Tabriz Metropolitan Area with a beta coefficient of 0.384 (33.83%) followed by the physical-infrastructural (0.305, 26.87%), economic (0.267, 23.52%), and institutional-management (0.179, 15.77%) indicators. In District 6, the physical-infrastructural latent index led with a beta coefficient of 0.528 (42.58%) followed by the institutional-managerial (0.337, 27.18%), social (0.265, 21.37%), and economic (0.110, 8.87%) indicators. Additionally, the findings indicated that the northwestern and central parts of District 5 exhibited better resilience, ranking in the upper-middle tier, while the southern areas showed poor resilience. Conversely, the northern parts of District 6 also displayed weak resilience, ranking in the lower average range, while the southern and central regions were categorized as upper average in terms of resilience. Keywords: Urban Resilience, Natural Hazards and Disasters, Districts 5 and 6 of Tabriz, Multiple Regression, Fuzzy Logic Model, Confirmatory Factor Analysis. IntroductionAs the population continues to grow, land use undergoes drastic changes and urbanization accelerates, while cities increasingly become hotspots for both natural and human hazards. Resilience of urban settlements is therefore crucial, particularly in the context of megacities. This research investigated urban resilience levels, prioritized resilience indicators, and compared the resilience status of Districts 5 and 6 within Tabriz Metropolitan Area. Materials & MethodsThis research employed a descriptive-analytical methodology and had a developmental-applicative focus. Data were collected through library studies, field surveys, and questionnaires. The statistical population comprised residents of Districts 5 and 6 of Tabriz Metropolitan Area. The sample size was determined to be 342 participants, using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and the gamma exponential method. In this study, 37 observed indicators of urban resilience were analyzed and categorized into 4 latent indicators: social, economic, institutional-management, and physical-infrastructure. Prioritization of these latent indicators was conducted based on their relative importance and impact by utilizing multiple regression analysis in SPSS software. The observed indicators were assessed through confirmatory factor analysis using LISREL software. Additionally, to create a map of effective indicators, a fuzzy logic model was implemented within the GIS environment. Research FindingsThe results indicated that the social latent index with a beta coefficient of 0.384 (33.83%), ranked first in terms of resilience in the 5th District of Tabriz Metropolitan Area. It was followed by the physical-infrastructural, economic, and institutional-management latent indicators, which were ranked second, third, and fourth with the beta coefficients of 0.305 (26.87%), 0.267 (23.52%), and 0.179 (15.77%), respectively. In the 6th District of Tabriz Metropolitan Area, the physical-infrastructural latent index held the highest importance with a beta coefficient of 0.528 (42.58%). This was followed by the institutional-managerial, social, and economic latent indicators, which ranked second, third, and fourth in importance with the beta coefficients of 0.337 (27.18%), 0.265 (21.37%), and 0.110 (8.87%), respectively. Discussion of Results & ConclusionThe findings indicated that the northwestern and central regions of the 5th District of Tabriz exhibited better resilience, ranking in the upper-middle tier. In contrast, the southern areas of this district demonstrated poor resilience. Similarly, the northern parts of the 6th District were characterized by low resilience, placing them in the lower average tier. However, the southern and central regions of the 6th District showed improved resilience, positioning them in the upper average tier.