Buddhists, ballots, and backing for authoritarian successor parties in Thailand

Does popular support for democratic backsliding, or autocratization, have a religious basis? This article addresses this question by investigating the relationship between Buddhist religiosity and voter support for the successor parties of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the military junta that ruled Thailand between 2014 and 2019. Relying on data from a survey conducted following the 14 May 2023 election, we find that certain Buddhist beliefs, practices, and sectarian affinities correlate with backing for the NCPO’s successor parties in both the 2019 and 2023 elections. Ceteris paribus, authoritarian successor parties find greater support than their main pro-democratic rivals among voters with stronger beliefs in reincarnation and the law of karma; who are less orientated towards sacred Buddhist objects; who engage in Vipassana meditation more frequently; and who feel closer to one new Buddhist movement (Santi Asoke) and more distant to another (Wat Phra Dhammakaya). Taken together, these findings demonstrate that the main electoral cleavage in Thailand’s 2019 and 2023 elections – that between authoritarian successor parties and their main pro-democratic rivals – reflects important differences in Buddhist religiosity heretofore ignored in explaining Thailand’s political divide.