Multilevel actor networks in China’s growing fossil-fuel based role in the global electricity sector

Abstract Chinese investments into fossil fuel-based electricity generation capacity under its Belt and Road Initiative will create lock-in for decades. Despite China’s recent rise as major public finance provider for the electricity sector of the developing world and the related environmental impacts, there is limited knowledge of the extent and characteristics of non-Chinese participation in Chinese-funded projects. We apply complexity theory approaches and network modelling on a new dataset that links funding activities of Developmental Institutions (Chinese Developmental Institutions (CDIs), Western-backed Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs)) and the involvement of companies in different roles (i.e., as direct investors, contractors, equipment suppliers, and other service providers) to power plants around the world at the unit-level (1999-2020). Previous literature suggests that CDI funded projects show preference to Chinese commercial partners, but we find more than 70% include non-Chinese participants. This also applies for fossil-fuel based technologies where we observe increasing shares of international actors that together account for nearly every third commercial linkage. However, involvement levels and interaction patterns not only differ by technologies (fossils, hydro, non-hydro renewable, nuclear) but also by the time period and types of commercial partners and we observe overall convergence between the CDI- and MDB-supported power plant networks over time. The decreasing involvement of Chinese companies in CDI-funded projects, across technologies, in favour of increasing Western involvement, has important implications for development and climate policy on which we elaborate. However, the failure of both MDB and CDI funding to promote domestic company involvement in the recipient countries may be the largest failing of both sets of agencies in the pursuit of development outcomes.