Response of Ecological Profit and Loss to Land Use Change in the Agro-pastoral Ecotone in Northeast China

［Objective］ The impact of land use change on the evolution of ecological profit and loss under multi-scenario simulation in Chaoyang was explored to provide a reference for the land space planning and ecological environment protection of the agro-pastoral ecotone in Northeast China. ［Methods］ Based on the land use data of Chaoyang in 2000, 2010 and 2020, the Markov-PLUS model and ecological footprint model were used to analyze and predict the evolution characteristics of land use structure and ecological profit and loss of Chaoyang under four scenarios from 2000 to 2030. On this basis, the response of ecological profit and loss to land use change were explored by using the ecological elasticity model. ［Results］ 1) The land use change in Chaoyang from 2000 to 2020 was quite drastic. Cultivated land and grassland were the main types of land use, accounting for more than 80% of the total land area. 2) From 2000 to 2020, Chaoyang showed a change from ecological deficit to ecological surplus, with an overall increment of 273.07 × 104 hm2, showing a spatial distribution pattern of high in the west and low in the east. The rapid increase of ecological carrying capacity of grassland, woodland and water area was the main reason for the increase of ecological surplus in Chaoyang. 3) Under four scenarios from 2020 to 2030, the ecological surplus of Chaoyang increased significantly, with ecological priority scenario (99.66 × 104 hm2) > cultivated land protection scenario (98.93 × 10 hm) > natural development scenario (98.02 × 10 hm) > urban development scenario (97.87 × 104 hm2). The high-value area of ecological surplus migrated and expanded from west to east, while the low value-area concentrated in the urban center. 4) The ecological profit and loss of Chaoyang was elastic to land use change, and the ecological elasticity coefficient showed an increasing trend. ［Conclusion］ Land use change significantly affects ecological profit and loss. Optimizing land use structure can effectively improve regional ecological environment.