Evaluating spatiotemporal variations in agricultural production efficiency and total factor productivity change index across China

【Objective】Water shortage is a pressing issue in many regions of China, where significant differences exist in agricultural production conditions and efficiency among provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. Assessing the agricultural production efficiency of these regions is essential for identifying developmental bottlenecks and devising strategies to enhance both productivity and water use efficiency.【Method】A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model was used to evaluate the comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency of agricultural production in 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions across China from 2004 to 2022. Additionally, the DEA-Malmquist productivity index was applied to analyze the components of efficiency change and the temporal variation characteristics.【Result】The results indicate that, from 2004 to 2022, eight provinces and municipalities achieved DEA efficiency in agricultural production in all years, 12 regions were DEA efficient in some years, and 11 provinces and autonomous regions were consistently non-DEA efficient. Despite total factor productivity indices exceeding 1.000 both nationally and regionally, indicating an overall increase in agricultural production efficiency, the technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency remained largely unchanged. Technological progress was identified as the primary driver of the observed increase in efficiency. In regions that are non-DEA efficient, such as Hebei and Shanxi, redundant inputs in agricultural water resources and effective irrigated areas suggest that reducing excessive input or reallocating underutilized inputs could enhance production efficiency and the effectiveness of farmland water conservancy investments. Regions with fluctuating pure technical and scale efficiency indices around 1.000 should focus on optimizing production scale and improving the efficiency of existing technologies. Conversely, regions with low technological progress indices, such as Xinjiang and Yunnan, should prioritize technology optimization, adopt water-saving innovations, and enhance farmland water infrastructure.【Conclusion】Our findings reveal significant regional variations in agricultural production efficiency and total factor productivity across China. Strategies for improving these efficiencies are outlined, providing a basis for targeted interventions to enhance agricultural productivity and water use efficiency in water-scarce regions.