Temperature and vector density in Feltre, Northern Italy, in 2014 and 2015.

A. Daily mean temperature in Feltre in 2014 as sourced from MODIS satellite Land Surface Temperature measurements (blue line) and smoothed temperature values obtained by fitting equation <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012364#pcbi.1012364.e047" target="_blank">(4)</a> in the main text to those data (orange line). B. Analogous to panel A, but using temperature data from 2015. C. Monthly number of adult female vectors per hectare in 2014 (and early 2015) obtained by solving system of equations <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012364#pcbi.1012364.e024" target="_blank">(3)</a> in the main text numerically based on the fitted temperature values in panel A (blue dots), and inferred number of adult female vectors per hectare obtained by fitting equation <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012364#pcbi.1012364.e057" target="_blank">(5)</a> in the main text to the monthly values (blue line). The ecological model is initialised at the beginning of April 2014. The fitted values shown from January to March 2014 reflect the fit from early 2015 (assuming annual periodicity). D. Analogous to panel C, but for 2015 (and early 2016), based on the fitted temperature values in panel B. (PDF)