Optimization of Low-Carbon Technology Adoption Decision for Generation Enterprises Considering Cost Uncertainty

To investigate the investment decision optimization issue under the condition of uncertain cost of multiple types of low-carbon technologies faced by power generation enterprises to actively achieve the goal of "dual carbon", this paper takes the medium- and long-term time-scale decision-making optimization of independent power generation enterprises as the research perspective. Considering the cost uncertainty of various technologies within the investment period, a two-stage robust model is constructed based on the expected output and installed capacity. In the first stage, the objective is to maximize the net profit of the enterprise's operations. In the second stage, the cost uncertainty of various technology investments and the expected output provided in the first stage are considered as constraints. A comprehensive consideration of the annual investment intensity of the enterprise and the total investment limit for the investment plan period is made to minimize the total investment cost. The second-stage model is transformed into an equivalent linearized model for subsequent solving of the problem in a robust equivalent form. The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is employed to solve the two-stage problem. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing the evolution of the power generation company's power structure under different scenarios, which can provide valuable insights for power generation companies adopting low-carbon technologies.