Prior predictive simulations of the age-profile of seroprevalence to assess the appropriateness of the prior distributions for the parameters l and r used in the constant model with seroreversion.

The shaded area is the 95% highest density interval and the solid line is the mean estimate of seroprevalence. The priors were specified as follows: (A) <i>λ</i> is Lognormal(log(0.01), 1) and <i>ρ</i> is Lognormal(log(0.01), 1). (B) <i>λ</i> is Exponential(10) and <i>ρ</i> is Lognormal(0, 1). (C) <i>λ</i> is Lognormal(log(0.01), 1) and <i>ρ</i> is Exponential(10). (D) <i>λ</i> is Exponential(1) and <i>ρ</i> is Exponential(1). (PDF)