Youth Reoffending: Prevalence and Predictive Risk Factors in Two States

The Youth Protective Factors Study is an unprecedented multistate, multiyear examination of which risk and protective factors matter most when it comes to reoffending—particularly for more serious offenses that involve physical harm to another person (person offenses)—for youth ages 10 to 23 in the juvenile justice system. This brief is the first in a series that shares key findings to guide jurisdictions on research-based juvenile justice supervision, case planning, and service strategies to improve public safety and youth outcomes. These findings are especially pertinent during a time of rising concerns about youth crime, violence, and victimization. This brief is based on analysis of over 32,000 youth who had a new delinquency or status offense complaint over 3 years (2015–2017) in 2 states and received a risk assessment from the probation department. Most of the youth ended up on some form of supervision. Supervision could have included involvement in a diversion program, informal supervision, probation, a secure placement, or any combination of the above, and incorporates the time from their risk assessment until their case was closed (including any supervision extensions). Researchers obtained the records of all new juvenile court petitions and adult charges for these youth during supervision and for an average 2.5-year post-supervision follow-up period. The study analyzed recidivism during and after supervision, including for person offenses (offenses ranging from simple assault to robbery and homicide), and identified which risk factors were most associated with reoffending for youth overall and of different ages.