Electricity Carbon Coupled Market Modeling Method and Market Optimization Mechanism Based on Dynamic Carbon Emission Intensity

Due to the timing differences between carbon market (CM) and electricity market (EM), accurately modeling their coupling is challenging. Analysis of operating data shows that the carbon emission intensity (CEI) of thermal units fluctuates with load rates, providing a foundation for real-time coupling and accurate modeling. This study develops a bi-level equilibrium simulation model with differentiated dynamic CEI in a multi-generator game framework. The upper level models generator decisions, while the lower level models EM and CM transactions. A low-carbon optimization mechanism (LCOM) involving interactions with other industries is proposed to enhance EM synergy. A Markov decision iterative optimal coordination algorithm (MDIOCA) is proposed to solve the model. Case studies based on the IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate that the dynamic CEI model enables real-time coupling of the EM and CM, achieving an additional 5.42% reduction in carbon emissions and facilitating an economic inflow of 47,900 CNY from other industries, thereby improving the economic and environmental performance of the EM.