Crop-Specific Emission\nProjection Suggests Peaking\nof Agricultural N<sub>2</sub>O by the Middle Century

Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of N<sub>2</sub>O emissions and plays a crucial role in global greenhouse\ngas mitigation.\nIn an increasingly populated world with growing food demands, a precise\nand high-resolution spatial prediction of agricultural N<sub>2</sub>O emissions becomes essential in reducing global emissions. In this\nstudy, an integrated assessment model coupled with the land cover\ndownscaling module is employed to predict crop-specific N<sub>2</sub>O emissions at a 0.05° resolution under various SSP-RCP scenarios\nfrom 2025 to 2100. Our findings show that global agricultural N<sub>2</sub>O emissions will peak around 2065, ranging from 5.2 to 6.6\nTg N a<sup>–1</sup>. Corn cultivation is the primary N<sub>2</sub>O contributor, while rice production will produce fewer emissions\nand peak before 2025. The emission hotspots are concentrated in western\nEurope, India, eastern China, and the west coast and east-central\nregion of the USA. By 2100, the crop-specific N<sub>2</sub>O emissions\nin China are predicted to decrease below the levels observed in 2015,\nwhile the emissions in the USA and India may double in some socio-economic\npathways. Our projection of N<sub>2</sub>O emission patterns is supportive\nof implementing targeted policies and strategies to achieve global\nemission reduction targets.