Net Zero\nby 2050: A Tale of Three Economies

A longitudinal study of CO<sub>2</sub> emission from\n79 economies\nover eight decades has shown that they can be divided into three types:\ncoal dominated, oil and gas dominated, or renewable and nuclear energies\n(REN) dominated. Economies beginning their industrialization with\ncoal will transition first from the coal-dominated stage to the oil\nand gas-dominated stage and then to the REN-dominated stage. Those\nbeginning their industrialization with oil and gas will transition\nfrom the oil and gas-dominated to the REN-dominated stage. For each\ntype of economy, there are two possible types of emitters, those with\nCO<sub>2</sub> emission increasing with time (polluters) and those\ndecreasing or not increasing with time (decarbonizers). REN-dominated\neconomies only have decarboinzers. By assuming current CO<sub>2</sub> emission trends to continue, the target decarbonization rate for\neach economy to achieve net zero by 2050 is calculated. Results show\nthat three groups of economies have the highest decarbonization targets.\nThe first group consists of coal-dominated economies which are polluters\nsuch as China and India. Their decarbonization will rely heavily on\nthe cessation of unabated coal-fired power and industrial plants.\nThe second group consists of oil and gas-dominated economies which\nare polluters. They include oil and gas producers such as Russia and\nSaudi Arabia. Their decarbonization will rely heavily on the cessation\nof unabated gas-fired power plants. The third group consists of oil\nand gas-dominated economies which are decarbonizers. They include\nUSA and many European countries. Their decarbonization will rely on\ncontinued reduction in unabated coal and gas fired power plants and\nincreased use of REN. Among available decarbonization technologies,\ncarbon capture and storage (CCS) is the one that will allow economies\nto decarbonize without changing their energy mix and is therefore\ngame changing. Implications of our findings are discussed.