Forecasting the possibility of developing low-carbon energy sources in the Chelyabinsk Region

The article forecasts the possibility of developing various low-carbon energy sources in the Chelyabinsk Region. The study is peculiar for determining the share of low-carbon energy, upon reaching which the ecological and economic system of the region will be balanced. The authors have studied low-carbon energy sources and ranked them by the level of the expected ecological and economic effect based on multi-criteria analysis. The analysis uses the levelized cost of electricity, material intensity (total resource capacity), the level of carbon dioxide emissions, the capacity factor. The research has established that the region is currently in an extremely unbalanced state. The situation can change provided that the share of low-carbon energy in the regional energy balance increases to 93%. In the Chelyabinsk Region wind power has the greatest ecological and economic effect. Its development cost estimation is 937.7 million dollars per year, with the material intensity being minimal at 24.4 million tons per year, and carbon dioxide emissions being completely absent. Bioenergy and solar power plants have slightly lower ecological and economic efficiency. Nuclear power shows quite significant efficiency due to the high capacity factor. Gas and coal power plants with carbon dioxide capture and retention technologies have the lowest efficiency at the present time. The study proposes further research work to improve their ecological and economic efficiency. The authors give ground for the need to maintain a balance between renewable and traditional energy sources due to the high difference between them in the capacity factor.