Multi-criteria assessments for identification of optimal low-carbon electricity generation mixes in net zero India

• Model developed for integrated low carbon electricity system in net zero India. • Electricity demand projections made at hourly resolution. • Statistically generated supply scenarios and estimated hourly excess power. • Defined multi-criteria index to identify optimal generation mix. • Recommendations provided for optimal mixes under various policy preferences. The expansion of electricity generation capacity in a nation targeting net zero emissions is a long-term planning exercise involving multiple considerations and tradeoffs. In this study, multi-criteria assessments of statistically generated supply side scenarios have been performed for the specific case of India in 2070, considering 6 low carbon power generation technologies. The objective is to identify (i) an optimal portfolio of generators to meet demand in 2070 and (ii) auxiliary systems like water electrolysers, hydrogen storage and battery electricity storage to serve as flexible loads for using surplus power without curtailment or modulation of generator output. Based on current techno-commercial parameters, optimal mixes for net zero India by 2070 are identified under different policy preferences. The electricity generation mixes with 2.27–11.39 % solar PV, 1.56–18.89 % wind power, 0.02–1.52 % hydel power, 0.04–0.90 % biomass-based power, 45.8–72 % fossil fuels with carbon capture and 22.5–24.6 % nuclear power are determined to be optimal, depending on priorities in different policies. Targeting a generation mix in this range enables an 87–93 % reduction in the carbon emissions intensity of the electricity sector from present levels.