Mid-to Long-term Analysis for Special Education Recipients and Special Education Teachers

Purpose: This study aimed to estimate the number of students eligible for special education and the required number of special education teachers in South Korea from 2024 to 2033. Method: The study employed ARIMA time series analysis using data on special education students from 2014 to 2023. Two scenarios were presented: one excluding and the other including the projected decline in the school-age population. Results: The number of special education students is expected to increase to 142,371 by 2033 without considering the school-age population decline, and to 136,671 when the decline is accounted for. This represents an annual increase of approximately 2,500 to 2,800 students. By school level, the number of students is projected to grow in the infant, kindergarten, elementary, middle school, and specialized vocational education levels, while declining in high schools. By disability type, the number of students with intellectual disabilities, autism spectrum disorder, communication disorders, and developmental delays is expected to increase annually. In contrast, those with visual, hearing, physical, emotional/behavioral, and learning disabilities are expected to decline, while the number of students with health impairments is likely to remain stable. Based on the legal requirement of one special education teacher per four students, the demand for special education teachers in public and private schools is estimated at 35,595 by 2033 without considering the school-age population decline, and 34,170 when the decline is included. This necessitates an additional 626 to 704 teachers annually. Conclusions: The steady increase in the number of special education students highlights the importance of proactive teacher workforce planning.