Dinámica del comercio exterior paraguayo, 1994–2025: un enfoque econométrico

This paper analyzes monthly time series of Paraguay’s imports and exports for the period Feb 1, 1994 to July 1, 2025, with the aim of assessing their suitability for statistical and econometric inference. To this end, tests for stationarity (ADF), heteroskedasticity, and structural breaks were applied, allowing the temporal segmentation of the series and the implementation of appropriate transformations such as first differencing. The results reveal that three out of the four segments analyzed meet satisfactory statistical conditions, which enabled the estimation of VAR models in differences and the application of the Granger causality test. In particular, a unidirectional causal relationship from exports to imports was detected for the period 1994–2002, whereas subsequent segments showed no significant evidence of causality in either direction. This segmented approach partially rehabilitates the series for multivariate analysis and suggests that the dynamic relationship between exports and imports is heterogeneous and sensitive to the economic context. For future research, it is recommended to analyze structurally dominant sectors—such as the electricity sector—separately, and to explore ARDL or VECM models in segments where cointegration is confirmed. JEL classification: F14, C22, E01, F10