Data-driven lifetime assessment of a wing sail system

Wind Assisted Propulsion Systems (WAPS) are crucial in the maritime industry's decarbonization efforts. As part of the Horizon Europe Orcelle Wind project, a new wind-powered roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) cargo vessel is being developed with commissioning targeted for late 2026 or early 2027. This vessel incorporates a Wing System (WS) technology, utilizing aerodynamic thrust forces for propulsion. Early identification of mechanical malfunctions and component degradation is essential to ensure the WS operates safely and effectively. UGent's primary contribution to this initiative involves the development of numerical tools to support data-driven structural integrity assessments for the WS, focusing on fatigue degradation and lifetime analysis. A probabilistic fatigue reliability framework has been developed to evaluate the structural reliability of the WS under uncertain conditions. This approach accounts for load, material, and geometric parameter variability, leveraging a non-intrusive Stochastic Finite Element Model (SFEM) for structural response assessment. Uncertainties in wind loads, material properties, and geometric factors are captured through Sobol sequence-based low-discrepancy sampling, modeling nine random variables to cover a broad probability space. This study presents only the wind-induced fatigue stresses on the critical components within the wing system. The stochastic characteristics of these stresses are derived from Finite Element (FE) simulation results, based on representative combinations of uncertain parameters. Future work will incorporate additional assessments of inertial loads across varying wind angles, and surrogate models will be developed to predict structural responses using sensor data. Stress-life methodologies will subsequently be applied to estimate the fatigue life of individual components, with the overall fatigue reliability of the wing system being assessed through Bayesian Networks.