A Spatial Analysis of Thunderstorms and Flight Disruptions in Some Nigerian Airports from 1989–2023

Abstract This study examines the spatial patterns of thunderstorms and their relationship with flight disruptions in selected Nigerian international airports over a 35-year period (1989–2023). Focusing on two core objectives—identifying spatial variations in thunderstorms across Nigeria’s major airports and ascertaining the number of flights cancelled, delayed, diverted, or crashed due to thunderstorms—an ex post facto research design was employed. Data sources included primary data from structured questionnaires administered to aviation personnel and directors of the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN), as well as secondary data comprising thunderstorm records and flight logs sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Nigerian Airspace Management Agency (NAMA). Six international airports with at least 35 years of continuous operation were purposively selected for analysis. Spatial interpolation using kriging in ArcGIS was utilized to map thunderstorm distributions, while time series analysis assessed trends over the study period. Descriptive statistics summarized the impact on flight operations. Hypothesis testing using one-way ANOVA revealed no statistically significant spatial variation in thunderstorm occurrences across the airports (F = 1.604, p > 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that thunderstorms contributed to flight disruptions but accounted for a modest portion of the variance (R² = 0.157). The study highlights the operational challenges thunderstorms pose to Nigeria’s aviation sector, with increased delays, cancellations, and diversions, although not consistently across all airports. The findings underscore the need for enhanced weather monitoring, staff training, and investment in meteorological infrastructure to mitigate thunderstorm-related disruptions in Nigerian airports.